[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Steel Tender Price Increase Expectations Realized, Chrome Ore Market Pressure Intensifies

On September 23, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price of South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price of Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) from the previous trading day.

During the day, the ferrochrome market operated steadily. Tsingshan announced the October tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 200 yuan from September, in line with previous market expectations. During the month, some steel mills announced production cuts or shifts, and actual stainless steel production in September may fall short of expectations. Pre-holiday stocking demand was limited, and recent inquiry and purchase activity was mediocre, with trading activity weakening. Although it is the September-October peak season, the downstream stainless steel market has not shown a significant strengthening trend, with prices struggling to rise, which also exerted some downward pressure on the ferrochrome side. Downstream acceptance of high-priced material was limited, and traders faced increased pressure to sell. However, with a significant reduction in ferrochrome imports, domestic producers, stimulated by good profits, maintained high production enthusiasm, and ferrochrome production continued to increase. Overall supply and demand were in a tight balance, supporting stable ferrochrome prices, with producer offers concentrated in the range of 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

On the raw material side, on September 23, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, it was 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 58-59 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 59-62 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, it was 60-61 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate, it was 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat from the previous trading day. In the futures market, the offer for 40-42% South African fines was $280-284/mt; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was $345-355/mt, flat from the previous trading day.

During the day, the chrome ore market operated steadily. The 200-yuan increase in the October steel mill tender provided limited support to the ore side. Ferrochrome producers continued to consume their existing inventory, and with the recent arrival of low-priced chrome ore futures, restocking was somewhat completed. Pre-holiday stocking demand was not significantly released, so recent inquiry and purchase demand for spot chrome ore was limited, and offers remained unchanged. In addition, chrome ore imports in August reached a record high of 2.0994 million mt, and subsequent concentrated arrivals are expected. With supply continuing to increase and demand remaining weak, the chrome ore surplus situation is gradually becoming apparent, increasing pressure on traders to hold inventory, and prices are struggling to rise. On the futures front, the new round of offers for South African chrome ore in the overseas market remained flat at $280/mt. Overseas miners showed a strong willingness to sell, while domestic sentiment was predominantly wait-and-see. Actual transactions were limited, and chrome ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.